Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics Deep Dive: NUPL, Puell Multiple, and More
Advanced on-chain metrics provide cycle timing intelligence unavailable in traditional markets. This guide covers NUPL, Puell Multiple, CDD, and how to use them for position sizing.
Bitcoin's transparent blockchain enables on-chain metrics that have historically predicted market cycle peaks and bottoms with remarkable accuracy. These are not magic signals — they reflect the aggregate behavior of millions of holders — but they provide a data-driven alternative to pure technical analysis.
NUPL: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss
- Definition: (market cap - realized cap) / market cap
- Extreme greed (>0.75): historically marks cycle tops; holders are massively in profit
- Capitulation (<0): holders are net in loss on all coins; historically marks bottoms
- 2021 top: NUPL hit 0.75 in November 2021; within 2 weeks price peaked at $69k
Puell Multiple: Mining Economics
Puell Multiple = daily miner revenue / 365-day moving average of daily miner revenue. High Puell (>4): miners are extremely profitable; historically near tops. Low Puell (<0.5): miners in distress; historically near bottoms. Based on the thesis that miner selling behavior is a major market driver.
CDD: Coin Days Destroyed
CDD tracks when long-dormant coins move. Each coin held for one day accumulates one "coin day"; when spent, those coin days are "destroyed." High CDD spikes: long-term holders distributing to new buyers — historically near market tops. Low CDD: long-term holders holding quietly — often accumulation phase.